AN UNORTHODOX VIEW OF THE WEATHER |
Journal/Book: Reprinted from Nature Vol. 177 pp. 1121-1123 June 16 1956. 1956;
Abstract: By DR. E. G. BOWEN Division of Radiophysics Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Sydney Australia FOR more than a generation the concept of the general circulation of the atmosphere has played a dominant part in the science of meteorology. It has helped explain many of the mysteries of weather phenomena and been responsible for great advances in this field of endeavour. The working tool of the forecasting meteorologist is the synoptic chart which shows the pressure distribution over the surface of the Earth at any given time. Being based on measurements of barometric pressure at many points on the Earth's surface the chart represents a very real physical situation. It gives vital information on the movement of air masses and has become the most important aid to forecasting the weather. It is especially useful for aircraft which have the problem of moving around within those air masses. But it has its weaknesses particularly on the question which is of most interest to the man in the street namely the forecast of whether it will rain to-morrow. The method of preparing a forecast of rain from the chart has been variously described as 'a matter of intuition' or 'an empirical process which draws on past experience'. How is it that intuition and empiricism come into this important function and how can they be taken out ? The forecaster has available to him a large number of physical measurements collected from a wide network of observing stations. Some of these like the instability of the atmosphere and the amount of moisture aloft are closely related to whether clouds will form. But a measurement which has a direct physical connexion with the formation of rain is lacking. It has been known for some time that such a measurement is possible; but its importance has not been fully appreciated. In the study of cloud physics it is well established that the number and properties of the freezing nuclei present in the atmosphere determine whether rain will form in a supercooled cloud. ... ___MH
© Top Fit Gesund, 1992-2024. Alle Rechte vorbehalten – Impressum – Datenschutzerklärung