Has age at onset of drug use changed over the past 25 years? Survival analysis of cross-sectional survey data 1980-1995

Author(s): Bauernfeind, R., Herbst, K.

Journal/Book: Z Klin Psychol Forsch Praxis. 1998; 27: Rohnsweg 25, D-37085 Gottingen, Germany. Hogrefe & Huber Publishers. 20-29.

Abstract: This study examines the age of onset of illegal drug use. Data are taken from four general population surveys carried out between 1980 and 1995 in West Germany with a total of over 40 000 cases. Prevalence and incidence of the time-dependent event of first drug use are investigated using Survival Analysis. After a period of only slightly increasing prevalence between 1970 and 1990 lifetime experience of illegal drug use has risen sharply since 1990. The observed increase of prevalence in younger age groups can not be explained with an age-shift of onset of drug use. The risk functions of first drug experience show an almost proportional increase over time. Retrospective responses on age of first drug use prove to be highly consistent and do not seem to be systematically influenced by the age at time of survey. Data analyses of all four surveys according to single birth cohorts allow for a more precise examination of the historical process of prevalence and incidence.

Note: Article Kraus L, Inst Therapieforsch, Arbeitsgrp Soziale Epidemiol, Parzivalstr 25, D-80804 Munich, GERMANY

Keyword(s): survival analysis; age of onset; illicit drugs; population survey; ADOLESCENCE; PROGRESSION; PATTERNS; INITIATION; ADULTHOOD

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