Why people are not like marbles in an urn: An effect of context on statistical reasoning

Author(s): Goldman, S. R.

Journal/Book: Appl Cognitive Psychol. 1996; 10: Baffins Lane, Chichester, W Sussex, England PO19 1UD. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. S99-S112.

Abstract: A large body of research has examined the effect of contextual knowledge on deductive reasoning. Relatively little work, however, has examined context effects on statistical reasoning. In this paper, we document that in a context such as drawing marbles from an urn, children correctly think of sampling as a way to measure the distribution of marbles. However, in other contexts, such as taking a survey of people's opinions, children design samples that have the effect of causing a distribution. For example, they sample members of the population most likely to have positive opinions. We interpret these results by proposing that knowledge of statistics comes in discrete pieces of intuitive understanding whose elicitation is contingent upon the problem context. We describe a model of instruction that acknowledges the effects of context on statistical reasoning.

Note: Article Schwartz DL, Vanderbilt Univ, Learning Technol Ctr, Box 45, GPC, Nashville,TN 37203 USA

Keyword(s): CONJUNCTION FALLACY; PHYSICS PROBLEMS; PROBABILITY; HEURISTICS

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