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May 2022

Evaluation of a conventional interpretation of Helmut Schmidt's automated precognition experiments

Journal/Book: J Parapsychol. 1996; 60: PO Box 6847, College Station, Durham, NC 27708. Parapsychology Press. 149-170.

Abstract: Analyses of raw data from Helmut Schmidt's 1969 automated precognition experiments were undertaken to determine if the results could be attributed to subjects capitalizing on local biases in the target sequences, as James Alcock has suggested, Global nonrandomness was refuted by Good's Generalized Serial Test. A computer program was developed to identify successive blocks of trials for which the singlet target frequencies were significantly diverse at P < .05. There was a strong tendency in these ''biased'' blocks for target and response frequencies to match on miss trials, Weaker effects in the same direction were found for doublets, When expected hits in all blocks were adjusted for this matching bias (MB), it was found that the bias, although real, could not account for all the significance, When the criterion for ''biased'' blocks was liberalized to .15, the MB effect could account for all the significance in the high-aim files but not the low-aim files, and it was absent in one of the three subjects, Two control tests using new random targets for miss trials gave chance results, Because there was no evidence of local nonrandomness when the proportions of ''biased'' blocks in the ESP files were compared to those in the control and random Monte Carlo distributions, Alcock's hypothesis is rejected, The MB effect is shown to be at least partly attributable to subject response biases to preceding. targets.

Note: Article J Palmer, Inst Parapsychol, 402 N Buchanan Blvd, Durham, NC 27701 USA


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