Long-run abstinence after narcotics abuse: What are the odds?

Author(s): VandeGucht, L. M., Hanssens, D. M., Powers, K. I.

Journal/Book: Manage Sci. 1998; 44: 901 Elkridge Landing Rd, Ste 400, Linthicum HTS, MD 21090-2909, USA. Inst Operations Research Management Sciences. 1478-1492.

Abstract: We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.

Note: Article Dekimpe MG, Catholic Univ Louvain, Naamestr 69, B-3000 Louvain, BELGIUM

Keyword(s): hazard modeling; survival analysis; narcotics abuse; methadone treatment; public policy; METHADONE-MAINTENANCE TREATMENT; DRUG PROGRAM-EVALUATION; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC-EVALUATION; ETHNIC-DIFFERENCES; FOLLOW-UP; MODELS; TIME; RECIDIVISM; ADDICTION

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