Seek and ye shall find: Test results are what you hypothesize they are

Author(s): BarHillel, M., Bilu, Y., Shefler, G.

Journal/Book: J Behav Decis Making. 1998; 11: Baffins Lane, Chichester, W Sussex PO19 1UD, England. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 235-249.

Abstract: Expert clinicians were given batteries of psychodiagnostic test results (Rorschach, TAT, Draw-A-Person, Bender-Gestalt, Wechsler) to analyze. For half, a battery came along with a suggestion that the person suffers from Borderline Personality disorder, and for half, that battery was accompanied by a suggestion that he suffers from Paranoid Personality disorder. In Study 1, the suggestion was made indirectly, through a background story that preceded the test results. In Study 2, the suggestion was made directly, by the instructions given. The experts saw in the tests what they hypothesized to be there. In particular, the target diagnoses were rated higher when they were hypothesized than when they were not.

Note: Article BarHillel M, Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Psychol, IL-91905 Jerusalem, ISRAEL

Keyword(s): Baye's theorem; confirmation bias; cognitive confirmation; clinical judgment; hypothesis testing

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