Needed: A ban on the significance test

Journal/Book: Psychol Sci. 1997; 8: 40 West 20TH Street, New York, NY 10011-4211. Cambridge Univ Press. 3-7.

Abstract: The significance rest as currently used is a disaster. Whereas most researchers falsely believe that the significance test has an error rate of 5%, empirical studies show the average error rate across psychology is 60%-12 times higher than researchers think it to be. The error rate for inference using the significance test is greater than the error rate using a coin toss to replace the empirical study. The significance test has devastated the research review process. Comprehensive reviews cite conflicting results on almost every issue. Yet quantitatively accurate review of the same,results shows that the apparent conflicts stem almost entirely from the high error rate for the significance test. If 60% of studies falsely interpret their primary results, then reviewers who base their reviews on the interpreted study ''findings'' will have a 100% error rate in concluding that there is conflict between study results.

Note: Article Hunter JE, Michigan State Univ, Dept Psychol, 133 Snyder Hall, E Lansing,MI 48824 USA

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